Ask the Weather Guy

2011-2012 Winter Season Forecast Outlook: La Nina Weather Pattern

2011-12-18T14:25:00.007-05:00

There is not alot to be said concerning this Winter season across the United States. It seems fairly clear that a La Nina weather pattern will dominate through much of this Winter season. Current observations and long-range forecasts suggests that above average temperatures with below average snowfall will be the main story to this Winter season. While temperatures are projected to remain warm through much of this Winter, there will be periodic funneling, far and few in between, of cold Canadian arctic air during the Winter season. Snow amounts across the U.S. are expected to remain lower than average. The jet stream is forecasted to remain near the Canadian border through much of the season. This means that there is an unfavorable environmental condition for nor-easter and coastal storm development as High Pressure dominates much of the U.S. this Winter season. On the whole, this Winter season looks depressing and boring. May I suggest that you start your spring gardening plans: no joke!

Hurricane Irene: Forecast Impacts & Discussion

2011-08-26T15:40:00.002-04:00

Hurricane Irene:

Bullseye: New York City, New York
Path: I-95 Corridor (Mid-Atlantic & Northeast)
Estimated Cost of Damage: Millions of Dollars
Be Prepared Now!

Hurricane Irene: I-95 Storm of the Century

2011-08-25T09:45:00.004-04:00

Folks, Hurricane Irene is on a dangerous path! Millions of people live along the I-95 corridor and will feel the effects of a powerful Hurricane racing up the east coast. Heavy rain and damaging winds will cause catastrophic conditions along the entire coast line. The big cities should prepare now!

Current Threat Level:

DC: (Moderate) - Possible Heavy Rain and Tropical Storm Force Winds
Philadelphia: (Moderate-High) - Heavy Rain Likely with Tropical Storm/Hurricane Force Winds
New York City: (High) - Heavy Rain Expected with Hurricane Force Winds
Boston: (Extreme) - Heavy Rain with Tropical Storm Force Wind/Hurricane Force Wind gusts

Boston, MA will see the most devastating effects of Hurricane Irene! This is a dangerous storm, and those that live east of I-95 need to prepare now!

2011 5.8 East Coast Earthquake: Biblical or Scientifical

2011-08-24T10:25:00.002-04:00

A rare, powerful 5.8-magnitude earthquake rattled the eastern third of the United States on Tuesday afternoon. At 1:51 pm a 5.8 Earthquake rocked Mineral, VA sending tens of millions of people from New England to the Southeast fleeing to the streets in shear panic and fear. Residents along much of the entire east coast felt the “tremors” in a matter of minutes. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, “the earthquake was among the strongest ever recorded on the East Coast.” Officials said there were no immediate reports of deaths, but the trembling of the quake caused panic in Washington, D.C., just three weeks before the 10th anniversary of 9/11, forcing the evacuation of parts of the Capitol, White House, and Pentagon. The FAA shutdown several major airports across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast (Reagan, JFK, Newark, and LaGuardia), in order to ensure the safety and the structural integrity of the airports runways. Shaking was felt as far north as Toronto, Canada, as far south as Jacksonville, FL, and as far west as Chicago, IL. East Coast earthquakes are far less common than in the West, but they tend to be felt over a broad area. Geologists warned that “aftershocks might strike for several days,” but the magnitude would hardly catch our attention, as three small aftershocks were reported by Tuesday evening.

After a rare and unexpected event, some Bible Scholars and believers are proclaiming that this event is another obvious sign that the Second Coming of Jesus Christ is right around the corner. What I find quite intriguing is that Mineral, VA experienced a moderate to strong earthquake in a location where Earthquakes are rarely reported. There are no major faults in Mineral, VA., yet a 5.8 earthquake sends formidable tremors hundreds of miles across the eastern-third of the U.S. Little to no explanation has yet to be revealed as to how and why this earthquake occurred. Nevertheless, Jesus said there would be earthquakes in various places as one of many signs indicating the nearness of Jesus’ Christ return. (Mt 24:7). Perhaps, this is Jesus trying to catch our attention. So, while some may mock the Bible and believe that the “End-Time Bible Prophecies” are hocus-pocus, who’s to say “Science” is always the answer…

Not a Preacher, just a Believer

Sources
(The Mercury and The Washington Post)

Hurricane Irene: Potential U.S. Landfall This Weekend

2011-08-23T07:10:00.001-04:00

Hurricane Irene continues to march towards the East coast. She is is becoming increasingly better organized. Irene will continue to strengthen as conditions becomes more favorable for development in the next day or so...

Note:

Irene landfall: Cetegory 3 (possibly Category 4)
50-60% chance of U.S. East Coast landfall (Rapid intensification from Hurricanes tends to favor a "right" turn and out to sea...will have to watch this closely)
South and North Carolina: Most Likely for Direct Landfall
I-95 Impacts: Charleston, SC to Boston, MA (Hurricane & Tropical Storm Conditions)
Be Prepared Now!

* Irene is a serious threat, so please begin taking precautionary measures to ensure safety and the protection of lives. However, for a Hurricane to hit the east coast, there must be perfect conditions. With Irene strengthening too quickly, she may only graze the east coast, delivering wind and rain along the immediate coastline, but never make an official landfall...This is no done deal!

Please stay tuned!

2011 Hurricane Irene: First Hurricane...First Hurricane U.S. Landfall

2011-08-22T12:45:00.003-04:00

Forecast Cone & Impacts:

Hurricane Irene: Serious Threat to Southeast

2011-08-22T07:40:00.001-04:00

Hurricane Irene is strengthening and becoming better organized as conditions become more favorable for further development. Irene is still forecasted to impact the southeast Friday August 26 - Saturday August 27.

Note:

60%-70% U.S. Southeast landfall
Miami Beach, FL to Cape Hatteras, NC (Be on ALERT!)
Landfall Conditions: Category 2 Storm (Possibly Category 3 Storm)
Irene: "I-95 Storm" (Tropical Storm conditions possible: Richmond, Washington DC, Philadelphia, New York, and Boston)
Please Take The Necessary Precautions Immediately!

Stay Tuned!

Tropical Storm Irene: U.S. Southeast Coast Threat

2011-08-21T10:50:00.002-04:00

Alright folks, Tropical Storm Irene has developed in the Atlantic. Irene is forecasted to impact the Caribbean Islands from the Lesser Antilles to the Bahamas. Current models are forecasting Irene to maintain its strength as a Tropical Storm over the next several days as it interacts with Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Irene is forecasted to reach Hurricane strength before making landfall in south Florida late this week (although, that could change over time.) Throughout this week, meteorologists at the NHC (National Hurricane Center) will be monitoring the track of Irene as it approaches the Florida and southeast Coastline.

Heads up:

People living in Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina should monitor this storm very closely!
50-60% chance of a U.S. Southeast coast landfall Friday August 26 - Saturday August 27.

Stay Tuned!

Irene: Possible U.S. Landfall

2011-08-20T09:50:00.002-04:00

Quick Fact: Harvey has developed in the Carribbean with currents winds of around 60mph. Harvey may strengthen a bit before making an expected landfall in Central America later today. Now, let's turn our attention to the other story of the day...

Many meteorologists and I have been monitoring a strong tropical wave in the Atlanic throughout this week. Numerous forecast models continue to indicate a potential storm to develop from this tropical wave. This morning's satellite imagery of the tropical low looks much more promising today than it has in the past. NHC (National Hurricane Center) is forecasting a "High" chance of development over the next 24 hours with this system. Most models have come into agreement for a storm to develop and for it to track generally northwestward. While some believe that "Irene" poses little to no threat to the immediate U.S. coastline, others, such as Meteorologists Henry Margusity of Accuweather, believe differently. He believes that "the future 'Irene' will track up the east coast just like Donna did back in 1960." Henry,warning the public, calls for immediate attention for people living "from Florida to the Carolinas to now be prepared for hurricane and/or strong tropical storm conditions late next week." All eyes continue to watch "Irene" as conditions become more favorable for development in the coming days ahead. Please stay apprised to the latest updates from the NHC or NOAA.

Southeast: Hurricane Scare

2011-08-18T06:25:00.001-04:00

It's another happy morning for meteorologists across the country as the models continue to show a Hurricane hitting the southeast between Aug 26th-27th. There are little changes in the overall scenario; however, the forecasted tracks slightly differs from model to model. Yesterday, the models were forecasting a South Carolina/Georgia border landfall. Today, one model predicts the potential Hurricane to make landfall in south Florida and continue tracking northward through the sunshine state before heading north and east up the east coast. This projected path would deliver a punching blow to the entire I-95 corridor with heavy rain and strong winds. It would basically look like a nor'easter on steroids. The other model projected a path that is quite similar to yesterday's. This second path would not deliver as much potential as would the first path. The storm's effects would graze the east coast possibly causing just wind and wave actions along the immediate coastline. Either way folks, if the model trend continues to be our friend, this may perhaps be the east coast blockbuster storm of the decade.

Hurricane Threat: A Weatherman's Dream

2011-08-17T14:25:00.001-04:00

The tropical season is primed to deliver it's best punch in the next month or so as all eyes are on the Atlantic. We fortunately (unfortunately for weather enthusiast) have not seen a very active tropical season in the Atlantic, Caribbean, nor the Gulf of Mexico. However, please be advised that the season is beginning to enter a period of increased activity. Currently, there is nothing that warrants any concerns or worries in the open waters of the Atlantic. Nevertheless, some models have an unnatural tendency to strike some sort of concern for the elderly on Beach Side. The morning models came out and something did catch the eyes of most meteorologists...Current forecast models are predicting that a tropical entity will develop several days from now. Several models forecast this tropical entity to develop into a full-blown Hurricane over the course of next week. The models go even further to suggest a U.S. landfall around Florida/South Carolina Saturday August 27th. Could this happen....probably a 50% chance of such a dream coming true for weather enthusiasts. Please stay apprised to the latest updates on this potential development...As usual, models have a tendency to "hype" potential storms. Let's hope tomorrow brings even more joy to the folks who appreciate the weather.

Indiana State Fair Stage Collapsed: An Act of Weather

2011-08-16T09:45:00.001-04:00

Excessive Heat Watch: Baltimore/Washington DC

2011-07-19T13:45:00.004-04:00

Dangerous heat is expected to arrive into the DC/Baltimore area Thursday through Sunday. NOAA has issued an Excessive Heat Watch (area shaded in red)...which is in effect Thursday afternoon. Temperatures across this region, during this period, are expected to reach upper 90s to around 100 degrees. The heat index values will range between 105 to 115 degrees.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UPON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

(NOAA-URGENT WEATHER MESSAGE)

Midwest: Dangerous Heat Wave

2011-07-01T07:40:00.001-04:00

Chicago is no stranger when it comes to receiving its fair share of record heat. Infact, most deaths that occur in the Chicago area happen as a result from the summer's prolific intense heat. This time, Chicago is not alone as many other cities in the Midwest are suffering with temperatures hovering around the 100 degree mark. Oppressive levels of heat and humidity continues for a large area of the Midwest. Heat Advisories and Warnings stretches from Oklahoma City, OK to Green Bay, WI. A large dominating ridge of high pressure has situated itself over the mid-section of the country making conditions feel downright miserable. This heat wave will continue through the Holiday weekend making outdoor plans painstakingly difficult. ABC 17 News in Missouri says, "The duration and magnitude of this heat is what will become dangerous to those prone to heat-related illnesses or don't have access to air conditioning." There are some indications that the heat wave will break by early next week, but the exact timing and magnitude of any cool down remains uncertain at this time.

Tropical Storm Arlene

2011-06-29T09:25:00.003-04:00

Very interesting...very interesting indeed. Tropical Storm Arlene formed early this morning in the southwestern parts of the Gulf of Mexico. After crossing the Yucatan Peninsula, it arrived in an environment more conducive and favorable for tropical development. Arlene is strengthening ever so slowly as it does not have much area in the Gulf for rapid growth and strength. However, when looking at the satellite image, Arlene is a massive storm that covers a measurable amount of area in that part of the world. The Hurricane Prediction Center is forecasting Arlene to remain a Tropical Storm before making landfall in the northeastern parts of Mexico and weakening. U.S. location(s) that should monitor the latest on Arlene are Brownsville, TX and South Padre Island, TX for some locally heavy rainfall. Interestingly enough, Arlene formed right around the exact time and location as did Alex in the previous season, both taking nearly identical paths...Irony?

Severe Weather Threat: Southern Great Plains

2011-04-13T15:25:00.004-04:00

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS/SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI--THIS THREAT WILL INCLUDE VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING TORNADOES...

February 4-5 Winter Storm: Texas to Maine Shootout

2011-02-03T20:15:00.001-05:00

Compared to recent Winter Storms, this upcoming "Winter Storm" will produce very minimal impacts for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. In fact, this storm produced snow as far south as Brownsville, Texas!!! I posted a snowfall map just to highlight the areas of frozen and liquid precipitation with the expected amounts. This storm is a very weak system, and it should not be hyped into a bigger event!

February 4-5 Potential Winter Storm

2011-02-02T14:45:00.002-05:00

Alright folks, it looks like the models have jumped onto the idea of another storm developing in the south tomorrow and Friday. A low pressure is expected to develop off the coast of Georgia and move northward along the coast Friday and Saturday. The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast would be in the potential zone to recieve some accumulating wintry-mix and/or snow. However, since the exact track is still undeterminable, there remains little confindence behind current forecasting. If this low pressure tracked along the coast then there would be better chances of this system phasing and providing some wintry weather into the mentioned regions. However, if this system travels too far off the coast, then it's a "no show." I am leaning more towards a solution that has some sort of weather impact across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This could also mean that the big cities may see more of a rainy solution vs. a snowy one...Time will tell. No need to fret over this storm, because I am not expecting a powerful winter storm.

Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: Requesting Storm Reports

2011-02-01T15:55:00.003-05:00

Please send me the following to wmm1991@comcast.net

Pictures
Snowfall/Sleet/Ice amounts
Videos
Community related news due to emergency weather conditions

Please send me STORM REPORTS! I am curious about the weather related events that is happening in your neighborhood, and I woud like to share with the public what you are or have experienced.

Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: Update

2011-02-01T06:55:00.003-05:00

While there may be some areas that receive more or less than what is depicted on yesterday's snowfall map, I still believe that my predictions are close enough that further changes or corrections is not needed. This is a powerful storm that will produce Blizzard conditions from Northeastern Oklahoma to Detroit, Michigan. Someone along the "Blizzard Corridor" may pick up close to, if not even, 2 feet of snow. Besides the fact that this is a massive category 5 storm, this storm will disrupt 100 million lives in nearly a 48 hour period. 100 million folks is about 1/3 of our country, and if you don't believe me, take a look at the national "Active Weather Alerts" at this site: http://www.weather.gov/ Get ready folks, because now is the time to take preliminary precautions and necessary steps to ensure safety.

I think right about now is a good time to PRESS THE PANIC BUTTON!!!

Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: Category 5 Storm

2011-01-31T15:00:00.001-05:00

Here is my latest predictions:

Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011

2011-01-31T08:10:00.004-05:00

Below I have posted a Winter Storm map that highlights the areas of various weather conditions and expected impact. This storm will cover a large part of the nation, and may produce some very heavy snowfall and significant ice/sleet accumulations. Stay Tuned!

GFS Models: January 31st-February 2nd Winter Storm

2011-01-30T14:05:00.001-05:00

Here is one of many similiar models that show the development of this potentially major Winter Storm.

Winter Storm: Midwest-Ohio Valley-Northeast

2011-01-30T07:05:00.001-05:00

Another major Winter Storm is in the makings as areas from the Midwest to the Northeast could be in store for another round of major ice and/or snow accumulations. A low pressure that is expected to develop in the plains will move northeastward gathering strength and gulf moisture. I have posted below my current thinkings regarding the precipitation type of this upcoming storm. A snowfall map will be issued tomorrow! Stay tuned!

I-95 Winter Storm: A Quick Note

2011-01-26T08:05:00.002-05:00

As I have been mentioning for the last several days, this winter storm will be primarily an "I-95 Winter Storm." With that said, Winter Storm Warnings have been posted along the I-95 corridor for the threat of some wintry-mix and measurable snowfall. The primary low pressure, currently off the east coast, will impact the morning and early parts of today across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, before a secondary low pressure arrives later today. Currently, this secondary low pressure is positioned in the Ohio Valley and moving generally northeast towards the Big Cities. This "blob" of moisture (the image below) will be the main brunt of the storm, unleashing most of the accumulating snowfall across the warned areas. This will probably arrive sometime around the evening commute in the Mid-Atlantic and early-mid evening across the Northeast. This secondary low will be responsible for dumping much of the snow. Depending on it's track and energy remaining over the mountains, the areas in the "warnings" could still be looking at 5-10" across much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. It looks like Boston may get a little more...but that's no surprise!

I-95 Winter Storm

2011-01-25T16:05:00.000-05:00

Well folks, I had to adjust my snowfall map. It seems pretty clear that the best area for accumulating snowfall will be along and near the I-95 corridor. Winter Storm Watches will be changing to Winter Storm Warnings up the I-95 corridor this afternoon and evening for the threat of accumulating snow. This will be a very wet snowfall, so sledding is not advised! Here is my official and latest prediction regarding snowfall amounts and precipitation type:

FYI: TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF FLORIDA....Serious weather conditions are developing in that state!

I-95 Storm: A Wintry-Mix Battle

2011-01-25T07:05:00.000-05:00

I am feeling fairly confident that a low pressure system will travel up the east coast and produce all types of precipitation along and interior parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This storm will be an I-95 storm and what I mean is followed: Areas surrounding the I-95 will see the the heaviest frozen precipitation in either snow and/or wintry-mix form. The Blue Ridge Mountains-extending north and northeast of the Appalachians have the best chance of seeing an all snow event. The central Appalachians will see light snow with minor accumulations at best. Coastal areas are looking to deal with a rain to wintry mix solution that has almost no impacts. So with that said, the best area for accumulating frozen precipitation will probably set up along the eastern side of the Appalachians and extend eastward to the I-95 corridor. All the big cities have a chance of seeing some snow accumulations, especially Wednesday night-Thursday morning. I have posted my current thinking's on the storm's precipitation type and amounts...This forecast may change as we get closer to the event. FYI: Florida will see a SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY!!! Stay tuned for possible further updates!

I-95 Winter Storm Looms Ahead: January 25-27th

2011-01-24T07:55:00.002-05:00

After reviewing the early model runs this morning, I am becoming convinced that this upcoming storm will be an I-95 storm. Whether that means we will see snow and/or wintry mix is yet to be seen. But one trend that I have been noticing with the models is that the 540mb line (32 degree Freezing Line) that supports frozen precipitation may set its self up along or near the I-95 corridor. It seems as though the big cities may be in line for a wintry-mix scenario. Areas from the I-95 extending west 25-50 miles will have the best shot at seeing accumulating snowfall. The track could still change, but I am leaning towards more of an I-95 Wintry-Mix Winter Storm and an Appalachian Snowstorm (similar to the winter storm map that I posted yesterday). Below I have posted what it is that I am referring to. The Blue line is the Freezing Point that signifies the point at which frozen precipitation is falling. You will notice that all the precipitation is behind the 540mb line, which means that the Big Cities will have a hard time of seeing pure snow...

Afternoon Update on Potential Winter Storm:

2011-01-23T15:00:00.003-05:00

There is still a lot of uncertainty, but models and forecasters are leaning favorably towards a Winter Storm solution for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. I have posted a forecast map that highlights the potential that exists for the shaded areas. If this storm does develop to be an east coast Winter Storm, the I-95 corridor may be looking at the potential for significant wintry-mix. I think areas 50 miles west would have the best shot of seeing an all snow event. While it is way to early to issue a promising forecast, please stay apprised to the latest forecasts. I think it will be Tuesday morning that us forecasters will finally make a prediction on precipitation amounts and the evolution of the storm track. Stay tuned for further updates!!!

Big Storm Coming Potentially: Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Jan 25-27th

2011-01-23T08:05:00.001-05:00

There continues to remain a Winter Storm threat for the up coming middle of the week in areas from the DELMARVA to Maine. A low pressure system is expected to develop in the Gulf Monday-Tuesday and interact with a disturbance coming from the northern plains. These two systems are likely to phase with each other off the southeast coast before riding up the east coast. The phasing of the northern and southern jet stream is crucial and would allow a deepening low pressure, colder air to be wrapped into the center of the low, and much more moisture to feed into the system from the Atlantic. If this was the projected forecast, areas from extreme North Carolina to Main could be dealing with either snow, sleet, and or freezing rain. This storm is not the traditional snowstorm, so forecasting areas where liquid and frozen precipitation will fall is quite challenging. I have posted a NAM model to give you folks an idea of what may be coming. People in the "yellow" area could experience some type of significant snow, sleet, and or freezing rain. It's to early to call forecast amounts. Once this storm develops in the Gulf, I will have a better idea whether this storm will ride up the east coast as a major winter storm or track out to sea, providing a glancing blow...Stay Tuned!

Tracking Winter Storm Jan 24-26th

2011-01-22T15:15:00.000-05:00

The entire Mid-Atlantic and Northeast is under threat for a moderate Winter Storm impact early/mid this coming week. And the clock starts ticking...

Mid-Week Eastern Storm...Followed by Extremely Cold Air

2011-01-22T10:30:00.003-05:00

1.) A potential Nor'easter may impact the east coast this week from late Monday-late Wednesday. Snow is possible from the Southeast to the Northeast. Currently, this storm would not be expected to produce heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions. The rain and snow line is still a question. I would expect Winter Storm Watches to be posted in the coming days ahead...I'll keep you updated on this potential winter storm.

2.) While the snow may impact parts of the eastern third of our country over this next week, a massive arctic outbreak will sweep across 2/3 of our country from Jan 27-Feb7. We could be looking at temperatures 20-30 degrees below average. This could be the coldest air of the season arriving in several successions. Stay tuned and keep warm...

Invest 97L

2010-09-22T17:15:00.003-04:00

Current Observations: Invest 97L has a high chance of tropical formation in the coming days ahead in the eastern Caribbean. Currently, Invest 97L is an open tropical wave traveling due west. It is expected that a tropical storm is to develop from this wave. Most models are forecasting a track into the Yucatan Peninsula. However, that being said, that may not be the end of it...

Thoughts: Invest 97L is forecasted to make landfall around the Yucatan Peninsula. However, something interesting may happen. A powerful trough will sweep across the U.S next week and act as a suppressing mechanism to keep Invest 97L on a more southern and western track (into the Yucatan Peninsula). Then the interesting thing may occur...As the trough sweeps across the country, either the storm will be torn apart from shear and remain harmless, or it will hang out for a day or two and decide to track northward into the Gulf. Both scenarios are quite possible and timing will be the ultimate factor. I have posted a GFS model showing Invest 97L slamming into Tampa. However, I do want to note that if the trough is a powerful as it is forecasted to be, the chances of Invest 97L to recover from the shear is unlikely, especially over land. Hopefully, this tropical wave can hang out far enough south and be out of harms way to allow development for a possible U.S. landfall.

Gulf Coast and Southeast Tropical Concerns

2010-09-21T07:05:00.001-04:00

Folks, although we are past the peak of the tropical season, we should not let our guard down yet! For the past week, the GFS operational models have been forecasting a tropical storm/hurricane to develop in the Caribbean towards the end of this month. I have drawn three projected paths scenarios if a tropical entity were to develop.

Southeast Impact: 20% I am expecting a storm to develop further west in the Caribbean, thereby lowering the chances of a southeast landfall.
Western/Central Gulf Coast Impact: 40% Looking at historical data, it would be more reasonable to expect a Gulf Coast landfall.
Florida Impact: 40% The models have been most consistent with the idea of a landfall occurring around the Tampa area. Historical tracks verify that a storm track into Florida is quite possible.

No matter where you live in the spectrum, please stay tuned over the next week for the possible development of a tropical system.

Bermuda: Hurricane Igor

2010-09-18T16:15:00.000-04:00

Powerful Category 2 Hurricane Igor will make impact on Bermuda Sunday-Monday. Residents are prepared for a slow movement of this storm over the area. Winds up to 100mph can be expected, with gusts up to 125mph near the center. Heavy rainfall of 5-8 inches can also be expected, with isolated amounts of 1 foot. There is also concerns for coastal flooding from the dangerous storm surge. Current Buoys are estimating 30 foot waves with Igor. David Burch, Bermuda's Minister of Labor, Home Affairs and Housing said in statement, "We have all heard the reports from the Bermuda Weather Service that this storm will be a long and punishing one and the potential for injury and physical damage is great." This storm needs to be taken seriously! Even if the center of the storm does not make a direct landfall, the Island will still experience significant impacts. Get ready Bermuda!!!

The Trifecta

2010-09-17T16:00:00.002-04:00

Hurricanes after Hurricanes...The Atlantic waters have been quite active this month! Hurricane Igor, once Category 4 with winds of 150mph, has weakened considerably. Igor will make a collision with Bermuda, bringing tremendous amounts of rain and powerful winds. Hurricane Julia will meander out in the open waters affecting the fishes...Hurricane Karl is currently impacting Mexico and southern Texas.

The Atlantic has been fairly active...but what about the Caribbean? Looking at the long range models, it does seem that the tropical activity will start shifting to the southern Caribbean. In fact, the GFS models are picking up on a tropical cyclone development around September 27th-30th. The current models are forecasting a track into the Gulf of Mexico. I have posted the GFS 18z model, and you will see that a strong tropical storm may impact Florida!!! We have yet to see an east coast landfall of any significance...Let's hope we see something!

U.S. Weather News

2010-09-14T19:40:00.004-04:00

The tropics are remaining quite active as predicted. Hurricane Igor is so far the strongest storm of the season to have developed. There are concerns that Bermuda may see paralyzing impacts from this major hurricane. So far, the U.S has been spared from receiving a direct hit from a major hurricane. Conditions will remain active in the Atlantic basin for the next several weeks. Long range models are forecasting more storms to develop, so don't let your guard down!

Fall is starting to make its appearance in the upper mid-west and the northeast. Cool Canadian air is beginning to make its track southward across the northern parts of our country. Fall foliage is just beginning in the higher elevation. I suspect for most locations, the leaves will not begin to change color until the start of October. Overall, our weather pattern will remain unusually quiet...

July's Heat Wave: Local to Global Impacts

2010-08-07T18:55:00.001-04:00

It's no surprise too many when the news came out earlier this month that records were broken in the month of July. The Northern Hemisphere had its second hottest July on record, while the Southern Hemisphere placed third. The main contributing factor is the stubborn El Nino that is ever so weakening...There have been hundreds of reports of deaths due to the intense heat waves across the country. Not to forget the deaths, but the rising price of air conditioner did not make the circumstances any better. Laurin Morrison from Maryland is one of many thousands in her area who continues to suffer from upper 90s with blown out air conditioners. She tells me "the temperature in our bedroom is 85 degrees at night." That is unbelievable and quite dangerous. Luckily, after two weeks of unending bed-soaking sweat, the air conditioning was fixed. Gail Feinman, a neighbor, believes that there is a connection between the record heat and the powerful storms that have impacted her area. She says, "I don't think I have ever seen such violent thunderstorms...at least not in the past 4 years or so." It is no surprise that there are many scratching their heads wondering what is up with this weather! Yes, summer is naturally warmer along with the heightened risks of severe weather. But where is line drawn that separates whats normal and not? Globally, unprecedented heat has been the cause of many deaths as it strikes concerns for those that have no means to staying cool. If the El Nino doesn't weaken any faster, we may be looking at a similar setup for Fall and Winter across the Northern Hemisphere to that of last year. Stay cool, stay wet, and just know that there are millions of others suffering just as you are!

Invest 93L: Danielle

2010-08-06T16:10:00.001-04:00

Invest 93L is soon to become tropical storm Danielle. Currently, Invest 93L is far out in the open waters of the eastern Atlantic. It has developed quite well already, and it is expected to develop even more in the coming days ahead. The tropical wave will continue on a northwest track very similar to that of Colin. Because the amount of shear and the dry air presently situated in the Atlantic, Danielle will not develop into much of a system. However, I do expect Invest 93L to become a Tropical Depression for the start of the weekend and for it to be named Tropical Storm Danielle by the end of the weekend. Once Danielle develops into a tropical storm, it is expected to remain a weak and disorganized tropical storm. I expect that Danielle's development will be quite similar to that of Colin's, with varying intensities. While Danielle is expected to take a northwest track, it will eventually curve out away from the east coast well before it threatens the coastline. This will be due to an incoming trough with a deepening low pressure, that will act as a swinging mechanism to almost carry the storm along the fast moving upper level winds. In other words, Danielle will have no impact on the U.S.

Tropical Discussion: Analyzing Current Conditions

2010-08-05T08:00:00.002-04:00

Just for fun, I have posted the 18zGFS models to show how one model is picking up on the idea that tropical activity should pick up. The areas circled in red are areas where tropical development are occuring. Others models do in fact show the same thing, but I have been noticing that this particular model is a little more extreme with its long range predicition. Basically, the long range tropical models are indicating that conditions should improve for tropcial development. While the temperatures of the water are not of an issue, there is other concerns at the moment. The overall shear in the Atlantic is a little unfavorable, the bermuda high is not positioned in the best spot to allow a tropical entity to impact the east coast, and there is some dry air in parts of the Atlantic that are inhibiting tropical development. However, these models and statistical data show that conditions should improve. While forecast predictions erred on the side of an above normal season, I believe that we will see an average season, with the best chances of U.S. landfall of storms occuring late August and September. While the tropics may not be the main focus of weather this summer, have you heard about the heat around the country?

For those that are avid facebook users who enjoy nothing but weather, Devin Toporek, blogger of Northeast Quadrant has recently started making weather videos that touches upon current weather events, long range outlooks, and historical data. You can check out The Weathervein on facebook at http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#!/theweathervein?ref=ts where "weather talk" is the primary objective for Devin and his co-host Greg.

Colin: Short Lived with High Hopes

2010-08-04T08:00:00.005-04:00

Wow, 24 hours later and Colin is basically history. What happened? "Colin become embedded in strong easterly low level flow around a subtropical ridge. The low level flow is significantly stronger than the upper level flow. Thus, the low level circulation has been sheared from underneath, causing it to outrun the deeper convection in a highly destructive and efficient manner" (AnthonyS). Colin, in short terms was sheared apart once it got its name. It is surprising to me and to many other forecasters because Colin has been on the models for a week now, showing signs that it may be a potential problem for the east coast. What is funny is that some models are still continuing to show Colin redeveloping into a tropical storm, when current conditions say otherwise. Either the models were overly excited about Colin, or "us" forecasters miscalculated...again.

My Theory: "Tropical wave Colin" will continue on a northwest track, moving quite rapidly for a tropical system. There will be on and off times when Colin looks better organized, but any sustained development will be inhibited. Colin will remain a vigorous tropical wave and will not impact any land as it curves out to sea. It may impact Ireland next week...but who cares, its not the U.S.

While Colin failed, others may not. Keep your eyes on the tropics because the models are still hinting at the possibility of more storms to develop over the course of this month and beyond.

Mid-Atlantic/New England: Watchful Eyes on Colin

2010-08-03T08:25:00.002-04:00

Finally, the HPC (Hurricane Prediction Center) has named Tropical Depression 4, Tropical Storm Colin. Colin is moving generally northwest across the Atlantic ocean with sustained winds around 40mph . It is expected to slowly gather its strengthen over the next week, reaching potentially as a minimal Hurricane (Category 1 Storm). Colin, for the most part has favorable conditions to develop. I would expect Colin to remain a tropical storm for much of its track across the Atlantic. Once Colin nears the east coast, the question becomes will Colin be a weaker Isabel and impact the Mid-Atlantic or will it be an OTS? I have been noticing that the Bermuda high off the east coast has and will continue to be fairly weak. This means that there is a higher chance of Colin taking a last minute curve out to sea. Although, if Colin remains a weak tropical storm it may impact North Carolina. My gut instinct tells me that Colin will curve out to sea and may impact Nova Scotia/New Foundland, Canada. It does bear watching as things can change. Stay tuned for further updates!

New Born Concern: Potentially Colin

2010-07-30T11:55:00.001-04:00

Many predictions are forecasting an above normal tropical season in the Atlantic basin. That may still be the case. While tropical development remained very limited in the months of June and July, I think August and September may prove to be the more active months. From looking at the long range models, there are hints of tropical development as far down as August 12ish...While you can't trust the long range completely, it does give the impression that conditions will improve and that conditions will be favorable for tropical development in the coming weeks ahead.

Alright, the main focus is on a tropical wave located near Africa. This wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, but there are signs of a surface low pressure developing. Looking from satellite imagery, there does appear to be a spin with the low, so it is only days before it gets a closed low level circulation. Once that happens, this pesky low will have the potential to explode rapidly into a tropical storm and eventually a hurricane. Current guidance's have soon to be named Colin taking a track towards the east coast. There are many factors that will determine whether this storm will hit Florida or the Northeast. But there is also a concern that Colin may go out to sea. No matter the track, the tropical wave will develop quite rapidly and spark attention especially to those that live on the east coast. Personally, I am hoping to get hit by a hurricane!

From looking at the image above, one of many models have Colin strengthening into a hurricane by next week, taking a track towards the east coast...Will it hit the east coast or will it go out to sea?

Solar Flares: Mass Telecommunication Disruption

2010-06-30T15:25:00.000-04:00

NASA scientists are expecting that during the years between 2010-2012, solar flares and sun storms may cause global impacts on our telecommunications. Leading scientist have discovered that the sun is entering a "violent" period, forcing mobile phones and navigational systems to potentially go off. Scientists are on the look out to detect sudden eruptions of highly destructive solar flares which have the ability to cause a "telecommunication blackout" across the globe. While solar flares are pretty rare, scientists will continue to be on the lookout to inform the public of a possible incoming solar storm.

Tropical Storm Alex: First Named Storm

2010-06-26T05:40:00.003-04:00

Tropical Depression One quickly became Tropical Storm Alex in the later advisories. National Hurricane Center felt that the TD had developed a defined center of circulation at the surface, warranting the issue of Tropical Storm Alex. Alex is a weak Tropical Storm and is not expected to strengthen much before impacting the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Alex emerges from the other side of the Yucatan, Alex will have then weakened to TD status due to interaction (friction) over land. As Alex continues on a northwest course in the Gulf, Alex is forecasted to strengthen to a strong Tropical Storm....However, that high depends on how much Alex weakens once hitting the Yucatan and how much available space and time it has to redevelop in the Gulf. Previously, I was favoring a landfall near Houston Texas, but it seems pretty clear from most models, that Alex wants to take a more southern track towards Brownsville, Texas...With this in mind, I think further strengthening will be limited to a moderate Tropical Storm of winds between 55mph-65mph. Alex is expected to make landfall next week...producing heavy rain and some strong gusty winds in either northern Mexico or southern Texas. Either way, this is our first taste to what could be an active season down the road.

Tropical Depression One: Alex

2010-06-25T18:30:00.001-04:00

Here we go! After endless days of waiting around the computers to watch the development of the pesky "little" tropical wave that has been meandering around the Caribbean; it looks as though a sigh of relief has been heard across the many who have been following this system very closely. The National Hurricane Center decided, and rightly so, to name the tropical wave in the Caribbean; "Tropical Depression One," soon to be Alex in the hours to come! It appears that during the day, the tropical wave has become better organized, showing improving signs of a deepening low level circulation at the surface. As the tropical depression continues on a northwest track, it will move into a more favorable environment once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Little to no shear is expected from hear on out, and gradual strength is expected in the coming days ahead. It is becoming increasingly clear that TD1 wants to hit the Yucatan Peninsula before entering the Gulf. From following the models and reviewing historical data, it looks as though "Alex" will hit an area between Texas to Louisiana. This still highly depends on Alex's development over the coming days and its strength. If Alex were to reach a strong tropical storm or hurricane status, then a track more to the north and east would be expected. But if Alex remains a weak tropical storm as expected, then we can expect Texas to Louisiana to be the areas of concern for impact. There is no impending threat, but stay on guard because you never know what can happen.

Extreme Weather Captures Attention

2010-06-24T09:20:00.001-04:00

It has been an extremely active week across our country. We have record high temperatures across the eastern parts of our country. The big cities have been approaching temperatures well into the 90s and even close to 100 degrees in some locations. Heat Advisories/Warnings, have been posted through much of this week in Philly and Richmond, and it is only going to continue for another 3-5 days or so. The upper mid-west has been surviving repeated rounds of severe weather that have been training over the same area day after day! Wednesday night, Chicago witnessed an impressive light show as a 100+ mile squall line raced across the metro area bringing flooding rain and damaging winds. A total of 244 storm reports were noted Wednesday from Iowa to Ohio! The west coast has not been out of the woods either; dealing with record high temperatures to tornadoes...in Billings, Montana! It seems as though every area across the country is experiencing some type of unusual weather for this time of year. And despite the extreme weather across our country, an earthquake in Canada sparks attention from people in Baltimore Maryland! Yes, people from New York to Maryland felt the after shocks from a moderate earthquake in Ontario. And don't get me started on a potential tropical storm next week, because "Alex" is a whole other story!

Summer Kick-Off

2010-06-21T16:00:00.000-04:00

"It's going to be another hazy, hot, and humid day today...with no relief in sight!" This is said all to often for this time of year, and I am sure the tv weatherman are having a blast repeating the same forecast day after day. With longer days and nights, the opportunity presents itself for more people to do activities during the day. Personally, I would suggest that the evenings are the best time to get out and about. The dog days of summer are upon us, with little hopes of cooler weather ahead. In fact, it seems as though much of our country is experiencing a prolonged heat wave. With a strong ridge positioned across the eastern half of the country, the southerly winds are pumping in very hot and humid conditions for a good chunk of our eastern folks. With an equally strong Bermuda high off the east coast, there is little hopes of seeing "cooler" weather in the coming days and weeks ahead. Honestly, it looks as though this heat wave will continue through the rest of June and part of July. Judging from the weather, it is very evident that a La Nina is the culprit of this unwelcoming weather. With this trend, many areas will be close at or in a drought in no time. We may be wishing for a tropical storm to hit the east coast before to long, seeing that the rain chances will be few and far in between. I am sure mother nature can offer up some good fortune...perhaps.

What's That Offshore?

2010-06-20T15:30:00.000-04:00

OIL! Tons and tons of oil are spread out among the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Even though the view is startling and shocking, I still want to commend BP for their continual hard work in the clean-up process. This is not an easy task, and may I further add that plugging a hole 5,000 feet deep is incredibly hard...If you beg to differ, why not try yourself and tell me how it goes. As the tropical season is under way, climatologists are closely monitoring the development of any low pressure systems to come near the oil spill. In a couple of days a weak tropical wave will enter the Gulf of Mexico. The question becomes, where does it track and how much will it strengthen? Because the tropical wave experienced strong shear in the Caribbean, any development should be weak and below Hurricane criteria. However, whether this tropical wave develops or not, it will create some wave action, which may lead to more spreading of the oil spill to the coasts. Currently, the models are trending for a weak tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico, placing areas between Texas and Louisiana under the gun to see a minor tropical disturbance...We shall see in the coming days!

Oil Spill's Impact: Hurricanes

2010-05-29T06:50:00.002-04:00

The prospect for a higher-than-normal number of tropical cyclones has captured the attention of many people living along the U.S. coastlines. The devastating event of a major offshore oil blow-out that began April 20, may spark even more concern through the 2010 tropical season. During a press briefing, laying out the seasonal outlook, NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco acknowledged that a hurricane's storm surge could drive any residual oil from the blow-out into coastal wetlands. But, she added, much depends on a storm's track. Because high winds from hurricanes also lead to significant upwelling of colder water from deeper beneath the surface, any oil droplets still suspended in those waters also could return to the surface and carry ashore. And any oil on the bottom in near-shore areas could get stirred up and transported inland as well. Given the shear size of a tropical entity, any oil that does come in contact with a hurricane will likely have little impact on the life of a storm. It is unlikely that the oil spill will change a Hurricane's strength or projected path of travel. Hurricanes are monsters...when they develop, they develop and nothing; such as an oil spill is going to prevent it from making an intended devastating blow to the coast.

Still, given the risk hurricanes pose to people and property, FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate noted that if stirred-up oil was the only issue a hurricane left behind, "I'm a happy person."

2010 Atlantic Tropical Outlook

2010-05-28T11:10:00.004-04:00

The official kick-off to the start of the tropical season begins June 1, 2010. There are startling signs that the 2010 tropical season may be similar to the 2005 season (Katrina). Recent analysis show that there are two main factors that are leading to a potentially violent season ahead. First, with the weakening El Nino, less shear is anticipated, allowing more storm growth in the Atlantic Ocean. Second, the Atlantic Ocean sea-surface temperatures are much warmer this spring than in the past 5 years. With warmer waters and less shear, there is an increase chance that conditions will be favorable for tropical storms/hurricanes to develop, and to hit the U.S. coastlines.

Most Hurricane experts are also pointing there fingers to the east coast for a 60% chance or higher for an east coast landfall from Florida to the DELMARVA coastline. Along with the usual threat of a Gulf Coast landfall, there are serious concerns that the east coast may experience several blows. Many people are curious as to whether the Gulf Oil spill will impact a storm in a positive or negative way. Recent studies conclude that the oil spill will have no affect on a tropical storm or a Hurricane at all. Be prepared for a possible active season ahead, and begin preparations to stay ahead of the storms.

The 400th Blog Post!

2010-04-11T13:00:00.002-04:00

It has been nearly 3 and 1/2 years of blogging, and I am still loving every moment of it! I can not stress how much I love blogging and to recieve the compliments and support from many people. Blogging has helped me to articulate my knowledge and passion towards weather. It has allowed me to share my understanding and to promote "self-generated" forecasts. But most of all, my blogging experience has helped me to become a better writer. It is quite funny, yet pleasing to see how much I have grown from this opportunity. On this 400th post, I would like to thank:

Mr. Huband, for inspiring me to do something with the weather!
My Father, for encouraging me to persue my dreams, while having fun!
Mr. Wilson, for publicizing and promoting my blog when least expected.

I am very grateful for the support from my family and friends, as I journey on to become the best meteorologist!

Below, is my first blog entry...You will notice my lack of writing skills; however, over the last 3 1/2years there has been a gradual and noticable improvement. It seems the "endless blogging" has done one thing at least...it has helped me to become a better writer!

Post #1

Sunday, January 7, 2007

Current Indications
You may think winter is gone, but do you realize that winter just started 2 weeks ago. Yes...it has been unusually warm for the past 9 weeks, but warm temperatures in early winter is a sign for a dramatic change later on. The fact that we've seen no snow is no surprise, because of the warm temperatures. But, if you look at how much rain we've been receiving lately, its been alot. The moisture is in place all we need is the jet stream to seek further south so that the cold air can come in place to change the precipitation from rain to snow. I expect in the Jan.14-Feb.2 time frame, we will see at least 2 snowstorms.

Oh and please remember this- Global Warming means an increase in temperatures WORLD WIDE. Just because its warm in the eastern half of the country, it doesn't mean automatically warming is taking place everywhere else. For example, Denver has seen snowstorms every week now. So please don't listen to those people that think Global Warming is happening.

Remember, Winter will have a comeback!"

`William Morrison

The East Cools...The West Warms

2010-04-09T20:00:00.001-04:00

The old and well known term: equilibrium, has once again proven that weather is a force of nature that is trying to create stability from one extreme to another. This past heat wave led conditions in the east to experience very hot and summer-like conditions. On the other hand, the west felt cooler conditions with near normal temperatures for this time of year. As the heat wave has come and gone, the temperatures in the east and west have switched among the two. Before, a ridge, with the help of a strong high pressure off the east coast, was the dominate factor in aiding much warmer conditions for the east coast. Now, the east will be under the influence of several incoming troughs that are expected to bring "cooler" weather compared to the recent heat wave! While the east stays cool and dry for the next couple of weeks, the temperatures in the west will gradually become warmer.

Though one simple explanation is stated above, we should not disregard the fact that the El Nino is weakening, which in turn is changing our overall pattern. I expect warmer conditions to return in the east towards the end of the April, or possibly in early May. Summer is many days away; and though cooler weather is expected, I believe that our share of warmer weather is not even close to being over!

Severe Thunderstorms: Slight Risk

2010-04-08T05:40:00.004-04:00

Public Notice: Be prepared for the potential to see a line of strong to severe thunderstorms impact our region during the afternoon/evening! The main threat will be damaging winds and possibly hail.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER MAY BEGIN BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

Be on the lookout!

2010-04-07T15:25:00.000-04:00

After many days of hot and dry weather, get ready to say "Ahhhhh...." A powerful cold front will be moving through our region Thursday afternoon/evening. Because the low pressure associated with the front is expected to slow down, it will give the atmosphere a chance to warm things up and to make conditions feel juicy Thursday afternoon. As the temperatures and the dew points are expected to rise tomorrow, the threat of thunderstorms are in the forecast...and not just the garden type, but everyones favorite; the severe type. Ahead of a slow advancing cold front, the sun will allow things to heat our atmosphere, increasing the chances for severe thunderstorms across our region. Areas along and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains should be on the lookout for the threat of strong thunderstorms. A line of thunderstorms will most likely develop and pack strong winds, heavy rain, and potentially hail. Along with the usual servings in a storm, a bow echo may form and if caught under one, please secure all outdoor stuff and yourself...you don't want to go on a treasure hunt to find your stuff. The Severe weather threat should diminish as the evening wears on as the cold front slowly exits our region. Expect cooler weather for the end of the week...Spring has sprung, with more to come!

FYI: Please check the Severe Weather Outlook from NOAA to see the latest and most recent update regarding the potential severe weather event Thursday. The link to view the page is on the header of my blog...

Confusion in the Air

2010-04-06T12:55:00.002-04:00

It is no surprise that temperatures have made headline news across the east coast. A summer-like heat wave is in full force, showing no signs of weakening...The Global Warming activists are having a field day, as they express their opinions; pointing their fingers to the facts that there is "Global Warming!" It is a sure sign that our pattern has changed. The all so familiar pattern of wet and cool; usually asociated with an El Nino, has diminished as a La Nina pattern has just begun to set up across the nation. With regards to the current heat wave, an elderly lady expresses her opinion saying, " Just 5 minutes ago, there was all that snow!" Obviously, many people are surprised that this kind of heat is possible after nearly 80 inches of seasonal snow. But that's right..."80 inches of Global Warming!" That explains everything...

This heat wave will continue through the mid-week, with the highest temperatures around 90 expected Wednesday afternoon. But I have great news! Thursday will be cooler with a temperature of around 80 degrees! Not only will Thursday feel so much "cooler," but the threat of showers and potentially strong thunderstorms will be in the forecast, ahead of a very powerful cold front! Once the front passes through our region, temperatures drop back into the 60s for the end of the week...Folks, we are talking about Mayhem this week! We start off the week with Global Warming, and we end it with Global Cooling! Gosh, it's too hard to understand our climate!

FYI: If you are having problems reaching my blog, with regards to pop-ups or blocks, please send me an e-mail so I can be aware of how many people are experiencing troubles. If I am lucky, I might be able to fix it...

Pumping in Warmer Weather!

2010-04-05T11:05:00.001-04:00

Here is the scoop:

Much warmer weather will persist along the east coast. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature temperatures into the 80s across the entire I-95 corridor! The temperatures in the DC area may reach 90 in some isolated southern locations across our region. The overall temperature range between 80-85 will be generally common across our region. This impressive heat wave will weaken Thursday as a cold front moves into our region. The threat of thunderstorms are in the forecast Thursday as a strong cold front moves east across our area. The timing, temperatures, and the dew points will determine and play a factor in whether any severe weather activity sparks. There is a potential for strong thunderstorms...but otherwise, expect showers with garden variety thunderstorms. I will update you if I feel that the severe weather threat should increase. A "Severe Thunderstorm Map" may be issued Wednesday...

The Bottom Line: Monday-Wednesday exceptionally warmer (Hot)! Thursday- Cold front advances towards our region, bringing the threat of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures begin to "cool" down towards the end of the week.

Spring Discussion

2010-03-31T19:30:00.002-04:00

Winter Recap:
The 2009-2010 Winter was mainly influenced by a moderate-strong El Nino. The southern jet stream remained very active and the northern jet stream remained very cold. The Gulf of Mexico was both cooler and wetter due the El Nino. The Gulf waters played a major role in allowing abundant moisture to track up the east coast, and to enhance phasing with the northern and southern jet streams. As a result, the overall pattern created a favorable setup for perfect east coast storm tracks, allowing record snow to fall across the east. This past winter provided historic snowfall and near-normal temperatures for the DC area.

Spring Outlook:
From recent data it appears that the El Nino is weakening and currently transitioning more to a La Nina state. As a La Nina pattern begins to develop, much warmer weather will be ahead and the threat of large rain-producing low pressure systems will be few and far in between. The Gulf of Mexico is still much cooler than it should be this time of year, (because of the El Nino) and until the waters warm, the threat of severe weather will stay marginal and limited due to lower dew points. It appears that the severe weather season is projected to start in late April and affect areas east of the well known, "Tornado Alley," courtesy of Accuweather discussion. From their outlook, their forecast makes perfect sense; understanding that a transition from an El Nino to a La Nina takes a certain period of time and ultimately affecting our weather pattern. With that said, I would expect above average temperatures, with an increase threat of severe weather for the late Spring. FYI: Do not be fooled that summer is upon us...Spring has just arrived!

April Heat Wave: Big Heat Coming!

2010-03-30T06:15:00.006-04:00

If the words "It's hot outside" doesn't come out of your mouth for the end of the week, then there is something wrong with you! A powerful ridge will setup across the entire east coast Wednesday-Easter Monday. As the ridge begins to develop tomorrow, we will notice that our temperatures will climb back into the 60s for Wedneday under fair skies, before getting much warmer for the rest of the week. As the strong ridge develops Wednesday, a powerful high pressure system will park itself off the Mid-Atlantic coast, pumping in tremendous amounts of warmer air. The heat wave does not officially begin until Thursday when temperatures are well above average, and even more on Friday, Saturday, and possibly Sunday. I believe that most areas will reach the 80 degree mark on Friday and Saturday, making conditions outside feel downright summer-like. Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s for Easter Sunday, with beautiful weather. Some areas may reach 80 degrees again on Sunday; especially for southern suburbs of Maryland. Easter Monday, temperatures drop to around the 70 degree mark, with continual beautiful weather.

The main point that I want to make is, get ready for an early awakening of summer!

Sunday-Monday Wet/Raw Outlook

2010-03-27T17:15:00.001-04:00

THE OFFICIAL RAINFALL MAP:

Rain is expected to move into the entire region Sunday afternoon/evening, bringing light to occasionally moderate rainfall. The majority of the folks will see moderate rain for the duration of the event, but areas along and near the bay may see some heavy rainfall, especially Sunday overnight and into Monday morning. Flooding is not a risk! Once this system exits our region, expect a major pattern change for the upcoming Easter Weekend!

A Chilly Forecast

2010-03-27T06:35:00.001-04:00

The last shot of Winter came through our region yesterday morning, causing some snow to fall in the northern suburbs. It also dropped the temperatures significantly; from the 70s for high temperatures on Thursday to the 40s on Friday. That was an impressive shot of arctic air for this time of year, and we do not have to worry about anymore of that kind of pattern until next winter.

A cool and wet pattern will continue through the end of March, before a heat wave arrives for the early month of April. the next major weather concern will be an arrival of a low pressure system Sunday night. This low is expected to move into our region Sunday night; bringing the chance of some moderate to heavy rain. The heaviest precipitation is expected to fall Sunday night and into the early morning hours of Monday. Once this low moves off the east coast late Monday, we can say "goodbye" to wet and chilly weather, and say "hello" to warm and drier weather ahead. As of right now, a powerful heat wave is expected to set-up across the nation's heartland, before moving eastward. There is a good chance that temperatures will reach the 70s/80s for late next week and into Easter weekend. This will be a fairly large heat wave, and it will last for quite some time...As April is on the verge of arriving, we need to start monitoring the threat of severe weather as the temperatures and dewpoints begin to rise; as well as the increase of Gulf flow moisture into our region...

FYI: It appears that the El Nino is weakening, which means that warmer and drier weather may arrive sooner than expected towards the middle-late Spring.

Above: I have posted the a NAM model showing the potential moderate-heavy rain that is expected to arrive Sunday night. A good 1 inch or more is possible.

Blog Doctor Came!

2010-03-25T18:23:00.000-04:00

It looks as though my blog is back to being fully operational....I will start posting this weekend again!

Blog Troubles

2010-03-17T07:05:00.001-04:00

I am currently having a hard time accessing my blog site, and will therefore suspend all further post. There has been a consistent spyware attack/virus on this site that is blocking me from accessing my blog...Due to the unfortunate nature of this situation, I will probably have to create another weather blog or end my blogging hobby...Please remain patient as I try to solve this problem.

Snow Pack Melts Away!

2010-03-06T07:45:00.001-05:00

Spring is knocking on our door this weekend, and into early next week. As the jet stream lifts northward over the coming days, we will be under the influence of southwesterly winds that will bring warmer air from the Gulf of Mexico. This surge of warmer air will not bring 60s and 70s across our region, but it will bring temperatures into the 50s. I know most folks are mentally ready for spring time weather, but I would not expect 60s/70s until April. Believe me, 50s will seem warm when venturing outside this weekend. There will be a slow gradual warm-up over the next several days. The warmest day appears to be on Monday, where some locations may hit the 60 degree mark! And not only will it be warmer this weekend, but it will be absolutely beautiful, with sunny skies and light winds. If you love the outdoors, this weekend is your chance to savor a real treat from mother nature. I would expect the snow pack to completly melt by Wednesday of next week. After all this warmer air that is expected to arrive, I find it very hard to believe that snow would still be covering many peoples' yards.

On an even happier note, Winter is over! Now begins the Spring rain soakers...and some severe weather!

FYI: The image above shows mid-upper 50s on Monday! Could we reach the 60 degree mark?

Warming Trend Ahead: A Hint of Spring

2010-03-03T06:25:00.000-05:00

After a very cold and snowy winter, we can now expect a warming trend over the next week or so. As the arctic air in Canada is retreating and weakening, and with the jet stream lifting a bit northward, there looks to be a good setup for warmer weather to arrive by the end of the week, through early next week. We are talking about 50s and maybe 60s...but I am leaning more on 50s. The warmer air is however not expected to stick around, as another wave of cooler air will arrive for middle of next week. We will continue to have fluxuations with the warmer and cooler weather as the pattern begins to change. I expect that a spring-like pattern will finally settle in by the end of March. Seeing that winter delivered a powerhouse of storms and arctic air, it will take some time until Spring can settle in across our region...for good.

A Southern Storm: No Worries

2010-03-01T05:55:00.001-05:00

It appears that the southeast is under the gun for some wet weather tomorrow and Wednesday as a low pressure system slides across the south. Widespread rain will likely fall across much of the southeast, but a narrow swath of wintry mix and/or snow will likely develop across western and northern parts of the Carolinas'.

Currently the low pressure is in Texas, bringing heavy rain and thunderstorms. As this low pressure moves eastward, it will clash into come colder air the the upper levels, therebye changing the precipitation from rain to snow in some of the higher elevations across the Carolinas. The low pressure will strengthen a bit as it feeds moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic, before weakening on its track out to sea. The low pressure is expected to track across the southeast, before exiting the coast and turn northeast away from any land. Due to the current storm over northern New England, the southern storm will be blocked from heading up the east coast. Because the storm is not expected to fully phase, much of the haviest precipitation will remain off shore and the cold air supply behind the low will be very weak, only to produce minor snowfall amounts. But as the low pressure slowly exits our region, an upper level disturbance will move through behind the low pressure, and will be responsible for providing us some light rain/snow showers Tuesday night-Wednesday.

I am aware that parts of the Carolinas' are under Winter Storm Watches, but I expect those watches to become Advisories for less than 5 inches of snow. This is by far a weak storm, and it should be looked upon as a minor event.

Coastal Storm: Lack of Phasing

2010-02-28T04:55:00.001-05:00

The models are still indicating the possibility for a return to wintry weather around the Mid Atlantic and Southeast for Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. It appears that the models are coming into aggrement with a east coast storm track, instead of an OTS track. Because the high pressure is weakening up north, the low pressure in the southern branch will not fully phase with the northern branch, therefore keeping the main precipitation just off the east coast. As this low pressure takes a track up the east coast, an upper level disturbance will be moving across our region. It appears from the interaction between the two low pressures, widespread light precipitation will break out across much of the east. If the coastal storm does not phase with the northern jet, then the main precipitation that does fall would be from the upper level low, and not the coastal. If the coastal were to phase with the northern jet, then a potential snow storm would be likely. Between the two scenerios, I am leaning away from a coastal storm, but with a forecast that has light intermittent rain/snow showers due to the arrival of the upper low interacting with the coastal low. Winter is finally ending, so any expectations of another Winter Storm should be reconsidered as March is not conducive for much major winter storms.

Thinking Ahead: Upcoming Coastal Storm

2010-02-27T06:30:00.005-05:00

What a wild and wicked week it was for the Northeast. Blizzard conditions for 36 hours and feet of snow fell across many areas. As the low weakens and slowly departs from the east coast, the winds will begin to diminish and skies should begin to clear. We will remain partly cloudy for much of the next several days or so, with temperatures in the lower 40s. That is still below average, so Winter is still showing no signs of departing. A rather tranquil period of weather can be expected from today until Tuesday.

The next storm system that we will have to watch closely will be a developing coastal storm that may impact just the southeast, just the Mid-Atlantic, both, or neither. It will be very interesting to see how the models evolve this storm in the coming runs in the days ahead. The models have been consistent with the idea that a storm will develop in the Gulf and track up along the east coast, dumping anywhere from rain to snow. As March will be upon us next week, we have to take note of the higher angle of the sun, which means that snow chances drop off greater in March than in February. I have posted the GFS 12Z and 18Z models to show how they are handeling the upcoming storm for Wednesday-Thursday. Right now there is a slight disagreement between the two, but I suspect over the coming days ahead, we will start to see a consensus between the models.

Windy with a Chance of Snow

2010-02-25T16:40:00.002-05:00

The main story for the next 36 hours will be the powerful winds. I have already lost power more than a dozen times this afternoon, and I can't wait to see what happens tonight with the stronger winds arriving. As the Blizzard is impacting the Northeast, the Mid-Atlantic is very lucky to be spared from this monster. Continuing heavy snow and strong winds will impact central New England, causing numerous reports of power outages and minor destruction to property. Through the overnight hours as this storm turns to take a southern track down the coast, there exists the potential to see another round of some light snow during the late overnight hours. Accompanyed with the possibility of some more snow will be the powerful winds that will setup across the entire region. Wind gusts of 50-60mph will be possible; hence the High Wind Warnings that have been issued! Strong winds and occasional flurries will continue through Friday, until conditions start to improve on Saturday as this low pressure starts to exit the east coast.

The Climax

2010-02-25T06:10:00.001-05:00

The storm is far from over folks. This Blizzard will last for a couple of days in the New England region, causing significant snowfall and powerful winds. We will get into some of that action later today and tonight.

The first round of precipitation came through overnight bringing a mostly wintry mix scenerio. Today, the winds will begin to increase as the low pressure begins to bomb out. Wind Advisories are more than likely for this afternoon and evening, as wind gusts of 40-50mph will be common. Late tonight, the second round of precipitation will come through our region as the low pressure starts to make its loop to the south before heading out to sea. A general coating to 3 inches of snow is quite possible through Friday evening. The best chance to see accumlating snowfall will be tonight/early Friday across northern Maryland, where 3 inches are possible. Lower southern Maryland will likely see a dusting or nothing. I expect Winter Weather Advisories to be posted again later today for the threat of light snow overnight/Friday morning across parts of our region. Overall, this storm will have minimal impacts for the coming days ahead. Lingering flurries may continue through Friday, as this low pressure slowly exits our region.

Most areas will see less than 1" of snow, but I can't rule out the possibility of 3 inches in northern locations of Maryland. A dusting to perhaps flurries will be the ideal forcast for southern Maryland...No need to hype any concerns of major snowfall accumulations, because it will not happen! By Saturday, things should begin to improve as we prepare ourselves for the arrival of March!

Northeast: Biggest Snowstorm

2010-02-24T06:00:00.001-05:00

NWS has placed parts of our region under a Winter Storm Watch, starting in effect from Wednesday night, lasting up to Thursday night. While the watch does predict 5 inches or more of snow to fall, I stand to differ! I think later today, the Watches will be down graded to a Winter Weather Advisory for the entire DC/Balt metro area. A general 1-3 inches of snow will be possible with this next winter storm.

As the storm chugs up the east coast tonight, most areas around the big cities will see rain or wintry mix overnight, prior to changing to an all snow event on Thursday. Snow stickage will be hard due to the recent warmer weather, but some roads may get slick Thursday afternoon/evening. This is by no means our storm to worry about, as we have already had our share this winter. I will say that a nasty Blizzard will setup across the Northeast tomorrow! The main concern for our region will be the strong winds. It will be interesting as to what the school systems will decide to do tomorrow...I may post a snowfall map later today.

Surprise Blizzard!

2010-02-23T16:55:00.002-05:00

Yes, the breaking weather news of the day is the potential Blizzard that is expected to pound the Northeast and extreme northeast parts of the Mid-Atlantic.  After several days of analyzing the models, it appears that a potential Blizzard is in the forecast for many.

A low pressure will develop in the Gulf, and then continue a track up the east coast; affecting the entire Northeast.  After looking at the models today, it appears that a major shift in the expected track of this storm has occured, placing many people in the Blizzard risk area. As the low pressure hugs the coastline on its journey up the east coast, it is expected to strengthen, causing powerful winds and very heavy snowfall. This system will stall just over New York City, before taking a southern track back down the east coast and out to sea.  New Jersey and eastern New York needs to prepare now for a major Blizzard!  Across Maryland, northeastern parts of our state needs to be on guard for the potential of a Blizzard. While conditions across our region will not be as paralyzing as those areas in the Northeast, nonetheless, we need to watch this storm closely for the potential to see measureable snowfall.

After reviewing the models, there will be a sharp cut-off from the precipitation shield with this system. Around 2" of snow may be possible across the DC area. More snow north and east, less snow south and west.  The storms timing and track will play a crucial role for determining the snow amounts across our area. But no matter the type of precipitation, winds of 20-30mph with higher gusts are expected! Please stay tuned as some may embark on the snowpocylapse express! A snowfall map may be needed tomorrow if warrented...

Spring or Winter...Hard to Tell

2010-02-22T19:45:00.001-05:00

It seems more and more clear, that Winter's grip on the eastern part of the country will not let go. I am pretty sure the consensus for Spring time weather is better prefered than Winter's peril. There has been alot of hype, concerns, worries, and spectulations concerning how our Winter season will end. Will we see a gradual pattern change from Winter to Spring...or will we see a Snowmageddon 3 to end the season on a memorable note? Some models have been fairly consistent with the idea of a final "snow down" for the start of March. Normally, it would be unfavorable for a snowstorm to affect our region during this time, but as this winter has been rather stormy than "normal," we must consider the options. I have posted the GFS 6Z Model interpretation of the long range outlook for the March 3-4 storm. As you can see, it's a biggie! I have also posted the NAO outlook, and it does show the potential for an east coast storm during that time frame as the NAO takes a negative tilt. I want to lean more on the idea of a gradual entrance into Spring, but something tells me that March will enter unexpectedly. Time will tell, but keep your guard up!

Monday's Main Course

2010-02-21T09:10:00.002-05:00

Snowfall Map: I expect a wintry mix forecast across much of western Maryland for the moring hours of Monday. A Winter Weather Advisory may be posted later today for those locations, for the threat of sleet and freezing rain. However, over 75% of Maryland will see a mostly rain event, amounting to very little rainfall when all said and done.

A Tale of Two Storms

2010-02-20T14:30:00.000-05:00

The southern branch remains active, thereby providing more opportunity of wintry weather to affect parts of our region. While the arctic air across the nation is not as impressive several weeks ago, the air is cold enough to support wintry precipitation in snow prone areas. We will continue to see cooler weather across the east, lasting well into the start of March. From looking at the NAO outlook, we can expect a slow trend to warmer weather in the month of March.

Monday's storm is not very impressive at all. In fact, this upcoming storm will set the stage for the possibility of aWed/Thurs east coast winter storm. As much of Maryland will be on the warm side of the low pressure due to the track of the system, I believe that our concerns should be about the minor flooding potential as perhaps 1/2" of rain could fall across our area. I can't rule out that western Maryland could see a wintry mix in the higher elevations, but precipitation should quickly turn to rain thereafter. As this low pressure pulls away from our region, our next attention turns to the late week storm.

Wednesday/Thursday storm looks to be a potential moderate event. Could be a classic nor'easter, or an "OTS" (out to sea). This system will phase with the polar jet, thereby bringing arctic air southward across much of the lower 48s. As there is the potential for this low pressure to phase with the northern branch, and for the track to be an idealistic one, we could be looking at a snowy scenerio for much of Maryland. Right now, I would keep taps on this potential snow event, as much of this winter has trended for a snowier outlook.

Winter's Finale

2010-02-19T15:20:00.000-05:00

The trend for better weather in terms of less snow and warmer temperatures are on the horizon! I expect the winter season to officially end in the second week of March across our region. A gradual trend towards spring time weather will start by the end of February. There is still the threat of wintry precipitation for the next couple of weeks, but the potential of anything to be major is very small. There has been alot of talk about Monday's storm, and I see no reason to hype any concerns about a possible winter storm. The GFS models are agreeing with more of a rainy scenerio with the next system. As the low pressure takes more of a northwestern track, much of our region will be in the warm sector, allowing most of the precipitation to fall in the form of rain. There is a good chance that some wintry mix will develop across the mountains of northern and western Maryland, but a very little chance across the DC area. As this system exits our region Tuesday, fair weather will persist through the remainder of the week. The next and hopefully last concern of a winter storm is in early March around the 5th. We will see what evolves in the later runs of the models. Maybe we will be spared, maybe we will get hammered...one last time.

The Road Ahead: Snowmageddon 3?

2010-02-16T05:25:00.006-05:00

I have posted the NAO outlook, and from looking at it...we will not be out of the woods until early March. I believe that either, one more storm will change our pattern from Winter to Spring, or a gradual pattern change will occur over the coming weeks ahead. It seems that winter has locked itself in the eastern parts of the country, making any hopes of warmer weather almost impossible. From checking out the models, the rest of February looks to be quiet, with temperatures mainly in the upper 30s/lower 40s for high temperatures. There have been concerns that one more monster snowstorm may hit the eastern seaboard one last ime, before allowing our pattern to change towards warmer weather. Some models are hinting at a possible storm around late February or early March. It is too hard to know which one...but my bet is the early march one. Last year, our area was hit by a moderate winter storm on March 1st, that dumped 6 inches of snow. That storm was the pattern "changer!" I can see the same thing happening, but with much more snow potentially. The worries are not needed right now, but I wanted to share my thinkings with you. Either there is one last masssive storm to hit us one more time, or the weather pattern is now beginning the slow gradual trend to spring like weather...

Clipper: No Threat

2010-02-15T14:55:00.000-05:00

It seems that the clipper fell short of our expectations. This was due to many factors...At most, many areas will see flurries or sprinkles. Nothing more is expected from this system. A definte pattern change is ahead! The threat of anymore winter storms is to be very slim.

The President's Day Clipper

2010-02-15T06:10:00.000-05:00

Winter Weather Advisories are posted for areas north and west of the I-95 corridor. Areas north and west of the big cities will see minor snowfall accumulations. Areas closer to the metro areas, will see a wintry mix. Southern Maryland can say "hello" to some more rain ahead, but very light in nature. This storm will move on out of our region Tuesday morning, bringing a return to cool and sunny weather for the week ahead.

Forecast: Wintry Mix

2010-02-14T13:45:00.001-05:00

The President's Day clipper is on its way! For us snow lovers, this means another chance of some wintry weather! It does appear that the models have trended for a more northerly track with the upcoming storm. This means that warmer air will be lifted further northward into our region, bringing the rain/snow line to the I-95 corridor. As the models have trended more north and west this winter, I was expecting this to occur...but this doesn't change my predictions from yesterday that much. As this clipper system approaches our region on Monday, it will bring precipitation in the form of wintry mix/rain for most areas during the day on Monday. As the clipper turns northward during the overnight, most and all precipitation should turn to snow across our region. There will be breaks with the snow activity, therefore reducing the snowfall amounts in our area. As the heaviest precipitation is just north of the clipper, Pennslyvania looks to be under the gun for recieving 6" of snow or more. In our area, we will see less amounts of around 1-2 inches due to the threat of mixing and rain. The "storm" should move off the east coast Tuesday, bringing a return to better weather for the week ahead. I will post a snowfall map Monday morning...This is by far not a major event. If we are lucky, tomorrow will be the last day that we see flakes fall from the sky!

Clipper-Snow: Minor Event

2010-02-13T13:15:00.000-05:00

More and more snow ahead! Another clipper system is on its way! It appears that a southern to coastal track up the east coast, looks more and more likely...Light to moderate snow bands will develop once this clipper system transfer its energy to the coast. A rain/snow mix line will develop in southern Maryland, reducing snowfall amounts. Most areas will see a mainly snow event, with a general 1-3 inches. Higher and lower amounts are possible depending on the snow bands. This storm will continue to strengthen as it moves northward along the east coast. Boston looks to be under the gun with the potential to see more than 6" of snow. For us snow lovers, a good light accumulation is all we want...at least for now. A snowfall map will be issued Monday morning as this storm makes impact Monday afternoon. Another President's Day storm ahead...At least it is no Blizzard!

Snow in the Forecast

2010-02-12T10:30:00.001-05:00

As most of our country is much colder than normal, the chances of snow increases exponentially. The south is dealing with a winter storm, where some areas will pick up close to 6 inches of snow or more. That is very unusual and impressive for those areas. The Mid-Atlantic folks have more snow ahead, as a clipper system delivers a small punch to our region. I am hoping that this next system brings a quick-hitting light snowfall, as most of us are very tired of snow. The Alberta clipper system is expected to move across the Mid-west, Great lakes; eventually reaching the eastern seaboard by President's Day. This clipper system is lacking moisture, so any measurable snowfall would be hard to come by. But this little fella wants to stir some troubles. It appears from the models that this "innocent" clipper wants to make more trouble...As the clipper reaches the Appalachian mountains, it will transfer its energy to the waters just off the southeast coast. Then this low pressure will travel up the east coast, enhancing an increase amount of moisture within the system. As this system travels north along the coast, Atlantic moisture will be thrown inland, allowing more snow to fall. Instead of flurries, we are now looking at possibly 1-3 inches. Great! What's next...a Blizzard?

50 Inches of Global Warming

2010-02-10T14:15:00.000-05:00

Wow...what a week it has been in the DC metro area...2 Blizzards and a 1st place spot as the snowiest season for the DC area with more than 55 inches. It seems only yesterday that the DC area was complaining about the lack of snow in the past years of winter. Now, we received nature's fury, showing no sign of resentment and no change of hearts from the Global Warming believers. But yes, they might say "We had to import snow into Vancouver for the winter Olympics, because of the warmer temperatures!" What's next...flooding in the west is caused because of global warming??? No...that would be the El Nino...From the many snowstorms DC had to endure, many are quite tired. For once, I am tired. As more than 3 feet of snow sits on the many surfaces, there isn't a moment's thought that I would rather see 70s under sunny skies. Folks, there will be many days of clean-up! School systems are closed for over a week, and the roads are nearly impassable in many areas. MDOT is having a hard time cleaning the roads as their budget is nearly gone! As we get our lives back in order, we will remember how DC went through the most cataclysmic winter season ever on record! Many will be happy to see spring...

It does look like winter will begin to diminish in the coming weeks. I do expect a cooler and wetter spring than average...It will probably take until the start of spring for all the snow to melt...Lets hope that warmer and brighter days are ahead for us!

We are survivors...of the Blizzards of 2009-2010!

Winter Storm Knock-out

2010-02-08T15:40:00.000-05:00

Another Winter storm approaches our region bringing accumulating snowfall. Due to higher snow ratios, a decent supply of fresh powdery snow will fall in parts of our already crippling region. This storm will have a moderate impact across the DC area...making conditions quite a bit more challenging. Hold on to your hats...the light at the end of the tunnel is near!

Winter Storm Threat Looms Ahead

2010-02-07T14:35:00.001-05:00

I know much of you have had enough snow, never wanting to see snow again. But sadly to say, I have to be honest to inform my blog readers that another winter storm is possible Tuesday-Wednesday.

A low pressure will dive down from Canada, behind the next arctic blast, reaching the east coast by Tuesday evening. This initial low will bring very cold temperatures with the threat of some snow. This low is not the main concern...It is the transference of energy from one low to another. The low pressure will make a track east, but before making it across the Appalachian mountains, it will spawn another low pressure near Norfolk. This low will become the primary low pressure, throwing moisture in the form of snow back into our region. This low pressure will strengthen as it continues up the east coast, bringing accumulation snow across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Because of a southern storm track, there is a good possibility of measurable snow across our region. The southern parts of our region will have to contend with a wintry mix. With cold air in place and the potential for decent amounts of moisture, snowfall ratios will be 20:1 or greater. This storm will not have a similar impact to the storm we just had, but the threat of a moderate winter storm looms in the near future. I suspect NWS will post Winter Storm Watches for much of our area, as the threat of wintry mix and snow is a possibility.

Records Shatter...More Snow to Come!

2010-02-07T07:30:00.000-05:00

A historic snowstorm impacted the entire DELMARVA region, breaking new records and causing havock across our entire area. Ronald Regan National Airport measures 17.8 inches, bringing this storm in 4th place as the biggest snowstorm on record for DC. Curently, DC is in 3rd place for the snowiest winter ever! Baltimore did much better, with snowfall totals of 24.8 inches, bringing this storm in 2nd place for the biggest snowstorm ever! Baltimore, I believe is in 1st place for the snowiest winter ever in recorded history. Those off us who witnessed this storm will never forget its power and destruction. Yesterday, 250,000 people were reported to be without power, reports of 20-30 inches fell across our region, and Blizzard like conditions persisted across southern Maryland. There will be many days ahead of cleaning up and restoring our lives back in order. I beleive that this storm will be classified as either a category 4 storm (crippling) or a category 5 (extreme), due to the unprescedented impacts across our area with nerly 2ft or more of snow! Models are hinting at another snow event for Tuesday-Wednesday, as another storm takes shape across the east. More on that as it evolves in the coming day.

SNOWMAGEDDON

2010-02-05T13:20:00.000-05:00

HISTORIC WINTER STORM RIVALS ALL-TIME RECORD FOR THE BIGGEST SNOWSTORM FOR THE DC/BALTIMORE AREA!

I have updated my snowfall map, as it seems that it is becoming increasingly likely that around 2 feet of snow will be common across our region!

2010 DELMARVA Superstorm!

2010-02-05T05:30:00.000-05:00

The biggest of the biggest snow will arrive in full force today, showing no signs of mercy to anyone! I have updated my snowfall map...leaning towards higher amounts, as much of the past storms this season delivered much more than what we had expected. This storm will make it into the record's book for DC and Baltimore. DC has a chance of earning 2nd place for the biggest snowstorm on record. The current 1st place standing has a snowfall amount of 28 inches...That will probably not happen. But the 2nd place biggest snowstorm on record, has 20.5 inches of snow for DC. I believe that we can set a new 2nd place record for DC, with total snowfall amounts some where in the low 20s...Baltimore, is a little more competitive, with the #1 biggest snowstorm totaling up to 28.2 inches. I do think that Baltimore will receive higher snowfall than DC, but because the competition is competitive, I predict this storm will place #6 just shy of 22 inches. Either way, this storm will be the biggest storm of the decade...and by no means should this be regarded as just "another snow event." Get ready folks...a wild ride is ahead!

LET IT SNOW!

2010-02-04T15:55:00.000-05:00

I have posted my snowfall map. I believe most areas will see between 1-2 feet. Some isolated areas may pick up close to 3 feet if this storm slows down. Otherwise, expect a heavy wet snowstorm! Areas in southern and eastern Maryland may have to contend with some mixing of sleet. That may lower snowfall accumulations as a couple of inches of sleet are not out of the question in lower southern Maryland. The Heaviest snow appears to set-up east of the Blue Ridge Mountains, extending from Frederick, MD to DC and Baltimore! The heaviest snow will fall Friday night through Saturday morning, where close to 1 foot of snow can be possible by Saturday morning in most locations. Near blizzard conditions will set up during the day on Saturday for eastern Maryland, and will not affect much of our region as the snow slowly tapers off in intensity during the day on Saturday. The snow should end Saturday evening, leaving behind the heaviest snow ever! Much shoveling can be expected! Did I mention that schools will probably not be open Monday...maybe Tuesday! I hope this storm delivers its potential, setting the stage for another snowstorm to hold a spot in the record's book!

Storm Rivals Blizzard of 09'

2010-02-04T05:35:00.000-05:00

Folks, its time to get prepared for a major winter storm. A potential historic snowstorm is still scheduled to arrive Friday with full force, dumping tremendous amounts of snow! From the morning models, nothing has changed to much with the expected track. We won't know the exact track until it starts to affect our region sometime tomorrow afternoon/evening. But the morning models did look much wetter, with very heavy precipitation heading into our region. Moderate-Heavy snow will develop and persist through the entire event as Gulf moisture and the Atlantic moisture help enhance the developing low pressure. Temperatures are still expected to range from about 25-35 degree, depending on your location. Heavy wet snow will fall, causing potentially power outages, and falling tree branches. This storm is very powerful and preparations need to be made now! This storm will clear on out of our region early Sunday morning, leaving behind days of shoveling and possibly some repair. Schools will likely be out for several days...Get ready for a monster, and could there be another next week? I will post my first call snowfall map this afternoon. I think this storm has a really good chance of being remembered in the record books for our region.

Storm Thoughts and Concerns

2010-02-03T14:25:00.002-05:00

Current Thoughts and Concerns: The models are still forecasting a major winter storm to hit parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northeast region. It seems that the GFS models are taking a more northward track, bringing warmer air with the threat of a more sleet and ice concern. The NAM models are more in our favor, bringing heavy wet snow across central and northern Maryland. As most models are forecasting snow for much of Maryland, we must be open to the idea of a possible significant wintry mix problem if the storm tracks further north and closer to the coast, drawing in warmer air. No matter the type of precipitation, heavy precipitation will fall! As this storm reaches the DELMARVA coast, the low will strengthen, drawing in colder air into its system, allowing a change over to all snow on the back side before it exits. As timing and the exact track still need to be monitored, there are a wide range of possibilities with this storm.

Secenerio 1: Area-wide significant snowfall accumulations

Secenerio 2: Significant snowfall north and west of DC. Significant Wintry Mix south and east of DC

Secenerio 3: Area-wide Significant Wintry Mix to Snow

FYI: Temperatures will be hovering around the 32 degree mark for much of the storm. This is why the type of precipitation is a major concern, which will entail tell us how much snow/sleet we can expect...

Potential Historic East Coast Winter Storm

2010-02-03T06:05:00.000-05:00

I want to first state that I was very impressed with last night's snow. Most areas saw moderate to heavy snow all night with temperatures just around freezing. 3-6 inches was indeed the expected range, and now all eyes are on this weekend's storm.

A low pressure will develop along the Gulf Coast, providing heavy rain and some thunderstorms to the deep south. As this low pressure gathers its strength, it will take a track up along the east coast (uncertainty with the exact track), bringing the potential to see some significant amounts of snow, sleet, and/or rain. As the exact track of the storm remains a big question, the models have been fairly consistent with a more favorable scenario that would bring accumulating snow and/or sleet. And since the favorable pattern has been for more snow, I believe that this storm will be no different from the previous storms. This storm would likely impact our region Friday night-Sunday morning. Below is my thinking:

Possible significant amounts of snow (12+)
Possible 1-2 inches of sleet
Heavy wet snow-power outages and falling tree branches

Currently, around 1-2 inches of liquid precipitation could fall from this upcoming storm. If it were to snow for the entire event, some areas may pick up 2 feet of snow...This storm could be of the same magnitude of the Blizzard of 09', except lighter winds and heavier wet snow. This storm need close watching, because whether its 1-2 feet of pure snow, or 6-12 inches of snow with 1-2 inches of sleet, this storm could do alot of damage. Please e-mail me at wmm1991@comcast.net to share your thinking's, concerns or questions. Please stay alert on the development of this storm!

Winter Storm Warnings!

2010-02-02T15:25:00.001-05:00

Whoa...Is it me, or is there something wrong with this picture. Us forecasters are beginning to look like fools as the predictions have been wrong for the second time in a row. The models are now in line to give the I-95 corridor a potential to see some decent snowfall. After the latest look on the models, it appears that the low pressure in the south will take a more northward track, bringing more moisture into our region overnight. Earlier I said that a .25 liquid precipitation would fall across our region, now it appears that potentially .5 liquid precipitation will fall, hence the issues of Winter Storm Warnings. The I-95 corridor seems to be the Bullseye for the heaviest precipitation in the form of snow. A band of moderate snow will move through our region overnight, dumping 3-6 inches of snow in the warned areas. If we really see 3-6 inches in the warned areas, then we may need to be considering the magnitude of this weekend's storm. As the trend continues for more cold and snowier weather with each system, I have no reason to doubt that this weekend's storm could produce significant snowfall. Please e-mail me at wmm1991@comcast.net for your input in this weekend's storm!

Another Round of Wintry Weather

2010-02-02T05:50:00.001-05:00

Storm number 1 will impact our region late this afternoon, through the overnight hours, ending Wednesday morning with some wintry mix and snow. Two low pressures, one in the Great Lakes and the other in the Gulf will track towards each other, bringing the chance of some minor wintry accumulations. As we are sandwiched between the two systems, I believe that the I-95 corridor has the best chance to see the heaviest precipitation, with the possibility to see some measurable snowfall. With as much as .25 liquid precipitation to fall, and a 10:1 snow ratio, some areas may pick up near 3 inches of snow in the DC area. I know that it is not alot, but for a weak low pressure taking a favorable track, that is some decent snowfall. Temperatures will remain in the 30s for much of the day. The snow/mix should begin to affect the DC area near sunset, bringing either snow or mix depending on the temperatures in your area.

Snowfall Amounts:

Northwest of I-95: Snow 1-3 inches (isolated 4")
I-95 Corridor (DC/Balt): sleet and snow 1-2 inches
Southeast of I-95: rain, wintry mix, and snow-coating-1 inch

The potential coastal storm this weekend is still looking wintry...More talk about the storm tomorrow.

Round 2 Next Weekend?

2010-01-31T15:00:00.000-05:00

Folks, after a nice surprise from this weekend's storm that affected the entire Mid-Atlantic region, we are not quite out of the woods yet. Yes, this week will be generally dry and sunny. However, the next several disturbances will roll on through our area Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, and another next weekend? Here is the scoop:

A weak upper level disturbance will move through the Northeast Tuesday as another low pressure system moves through the deep south, eventually up the Carolina coastlines. This means that Maryland will be sandwiched in between the two, allowing a slim chance of some precipitation from one or the other. Most likely, the upper level disturbance will affect the northern Mid-Atlantic region with wintry mix or snow, and the low pressure system in the south will probably affect areas in southern and eastern Maryland with showers. Both systems are not expected to have a dramatic impact on out weather for Tuesday, but the potential exists for some sort of precipitation to fall.

The next potential east coast storm is next weekend! All eyes are on the potential coastal storm that may affect our region, bringing another round of wintry precipitation to the Mid-Atlantic...Looks like another week of fun! (Maybe this time, us forecasters will be prepared)!

Mid-Atlantic Snowstorm Recap

2010-01-30T18:30:00.000-05:00

Well folks, on a funny note this storm proved that the GFS models have a very bias track to the south when it comes to an east coast storm. Once again, another storm proved that comebacks are possible when least expected. After a week of forecasters analyzing various models, and showing confidence that this storm was "nothing," every forecaster out there was wrong...including me. Just under a couple of hours from when the storm started in the DC area, many forecasters were still thinking on the order of 1-3 inches were possible in the DC area. As the snow began mid-morning across the DC/Baltimore area, it became increasingly clear that the storm may pack more of a punch than forecasted. As the shield of precipitation kept moving north and increasing in strengthen, "advisories" became quickly "warnings" for much of the entire Mid-Atlantic region. What led to this?

While the arctic high pressure to the north remained strong as forecasted, the low pressure in the south managed to strengthen and take more of a northeast track along the south coast, allowing the high pressure to subside a bit, just to provide that extra lift in the atmosphere. The cut-off line of the snow extended from Harrisburg, PA to southern suburbs of Newark, NJ. As the air was very dry and cold, snowfall ratios were 20:1 allowing the best possible stickage on every surface. While the brunt of the storm remained in southern Maryland, another bulls eye appeared in Montgomery County, MD and Leesburg, VA.

While most forecasters were wrong, what can we conclude...? First, it is a safe bet that the GFS models will always have a bias track to the south with an east coast storm. Second, never assume that the forecast is "God's Law," written word for word accurately. Third, always have an open-mind and never be afraid to be wrong...(because it's part of the forecasting game)! It will be interesting to see how this storm goes down into the record books. I believe this storm will be remembered for its impact over a 2,000 mile area, spreading snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, and thunderstorms.

Final Call: First Accuracy in Models

2010-01-29T07:10:00.001-05:00

There has been a few adjustments to the snowfall amounts for our region. As noted previously, lower southern Maryland will see the brunt of this storm, with Winter Storm Watches posted. It is very clear that the Mason Dixon line is the cut-off for seeing any chances of snow. York, PA will not see any snow at all...while Frederick, MD may see some. As the models have been so consistent in a southern storm track, I am now leaning towards lower accumulations for DC and north, and heavier accumulations south of DC. This storm will produce a variety amounts of snow. A 5 mile distance can make a huge difference in snowfall amounts. Any changes to the track at this point would have a significant impact on the snowfall amounts as well. This storm is not a winner for Maryland, but a winner for Virginia and North Carolina.

Storm Update

2010-01-28T16:45:00.000-05:00

The GFS is now showing a slight turn to the north in the storm track of this next system. What does this mean:

The cut-off line for snow will be around the Mason Dixon line, depending on the developing storm track.
Because temperatures will be in the 20s, snow ratios will be very high..which means that a slight increase in snowfall amounts may need to be adjusted tomorrow if heavier precipitation should arrive in our area.
Areas in southern Virginia look to have the heaviest snowfall, with the highest amounts of snow.

Let's hope the GFS models continue on more of northward trend. Believe me...any changes in the track will have sharp difference in snowfall amounts. I will make a final snowfall map tomorrow! People in the DC area need to be closely watching this storm evolve. Either way, somebody will see a good storm and most will see at least flurries!

The Trend is our Friend

2010-01-28T07:15:00.001-05:00

The models have been consistently trending towards a southern track, resulting in less snow and much colder temperatures for our weekend. This is the result from the massive high pressure that will be parked over the northeast this weekend, preventing any turn of the low pressure to come up the east coast. In this case, the arctic surge will be too strong, suppressing the storm to the south in the less favored areas across southern Mid-Atlantic. Northern Virginia and Maryland will be teased as a potentially major snowstorm could have made another hard-hitting impact.

I have posted a snowfall map, and you can see that I am still leaning towards some minor accumulations, as the storm may possibly make a nudge northward in its track. However, areas near the Mason Dixon Line should expect nothing more than a dusting and lower southern Maryland should not expect anymore than 3 inches. The cut-off line for snow will be the MD/PA line. Isolated amounts 0f 2-4 inches are possible in extreme lower southern Maryland, but that will be pushing it...Generally very light snow will fall from this next storm system. I may have to update my snowfall map tomorrow, but here is my thinking on the snow amounts for this weekend's storm.

I know most folks hoped for another repeat of the Blizzard of 09', but sometimes (on a rare occasion) the models can accurately predict the long-range forecast, and keep a fairly consistent trend on a particular storm development.

One more month of Winter...is there any changes for the rest of the Winter's outlook?

Winter Storm: Glancing Blow

2010-01-27T16:25:00.000-05:00

The models have shied away from the idea that this weekend's storm will come up the east coast Friday-Saturday. It appears that the incoming arctic surge from Canada will suppress the storm to the south. As the cold front passes through our region on Thursday, temperatures will take a big drop from the 40s to the 20s come this weekend. The track of the low pressure will be suppressed to the south, making a "B-Line" to the waters off the southeast coast. The heaviest snowfall will therefore be concentrated to southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. However, the temperatures in those locations will be near the 32 degree mark, making stickage quite difficult on the roads. But if heavy snow continues over a long period of time, accumulations will rise quite quickly in those locations. Areas in Maryland will see light snow Friday night/Saturday morning, with minor accumulations. As I noted, whether this low pressure turns into a major snowstorm or not for us, it will definitely provide some snow to areas as far north as the Mason Dixon Line. I wish that I could have better news to tell...The one time that we needed the support of arctic air, it comes to strong...suppressing our chances of a major snowstorm.